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Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes
Last week former Federal Reserve economist David Stockton’s report on Bank of England’s forecasting track record was published. City AM had this wrap-up (I didn’t read the report yet): “INFLATION has...
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Gabe Newell on prediction markets – NGDP level targeting and Lindsay Lohan
This is interesting – Gabe Newell on Youtube on the value of prediction markets. I love it…Gabe is co-founder and managing director of Video game developer video game development and online...
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Remembering the “Market” in Market Monetarism
A couple of days ago the young and talented George Mason University economist Alex Salter wrote the following statement on his Facebook account: I wish market monetarists would put relatively more...
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Guest post: Central bankers should watch the Eurovision (by Jens Pedersen)
Guest post: Central bankers should watch the Eurovision By Jens Pedersen Congratulations Emmelie de Forest with the 2013 Eurovision song contest first place. You have made all of Denmark very proud!!...
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Leave it to the market to decide on “tapering”
The rally in the global stock markets has clearly run into trouble in the last couple of weeks. Particularly the Nikkei has taken a beating, but also the US stock market has been under some pressure....
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The Crowd: “Lars, you are fat!”
On Friday I was doing a presentation on the global economy (yes, yes mainly on global monetary policy) for 40-50 colleagues who are working as investment advisors in the Danske Bank group. As I was...
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Tighter monetary conditions – not lower oil prices – are pushing down...
Oil prices are tumbling and so are inflation expectations so it is only natural to conclude that the drop in inflation expectations is caused by a positive supply shock – lower oil prices. However,...
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Prediction market: Fed on track to hit 4% NGDP growth in 2015
Since December last year the prediction market site Hypermind has been running a prediction market for US nominal GDP growth for 2015 (plus markets for each quarter of the year). I think the...
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Do economists know what will happen in 2016?
For the last couple of months I have been writing a weekly column for the Icelandic newspaper Fréttablaðið. I enjoy it a lot. First of all it keeps me in contact with Iceland – a country that since...
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Three simple changes to the Fed’s policy framework
Frankly speaking I don’t feel like commenting much on the FOMC’s decision today to keep the Fed fund target unchanged – it was as expected, but sadly it is very clear that the Fed has not given up the...
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